Abstract

To accelerate the global transition to a low-carbon economy, all energy systems and sectors must be actively decarbonized. While hydrogen has been a staple in the energy and chemical industries for decades, renewable hydrogen is drawing increased attention today as a versatile and sustainable energy carrier with the potential to play an important role in the carbon-free energy puzzle. 

Our recent article, “The Geopolitics of Renewable Hydrogen in Low-Carbon Energy Markets” explores the global implications of renewable hydrogen adoption at scale and shows that the role countries will likely assume in global renewable hydrogen markets depends on their renewable energy resource and freshwater endowments as well as their ability to deploy enabling infrastructure. 

Using the same analytical framework, this paper focuses on China and the potential role of renewable hydrogen in accelerating its transition to a low-carbon economy. Our research goal is to provide policymakers and other stakeholders the means to make informed decisions on technology innovation, policy instruments, and long-term investments in enabling infrastructure. 

Renewable hydrogen offers significant advantages for China. It can help Beijing meet its climate and pollution goals — at a time when coal continues to dominate — while avoiding increased reliance on imported fuels. As a readily dispatchable means of storing energy, hydrogen can also help to address intermittency and curtailment issues as renewable energy increases its share of China’s energy mix. Furthermore, hydrogen can open new avenues for developing clean technology manufactured goods for both internal and export markets. 

If water scarcity issues are addressed, China could become a renewable hydrogen export champion, supplying international markets mainly in Southeast Asia. At a national level, our analysis clearly shows how renewable hydrogen could be most efficiently and effectively produced in the Southwestern region. A region where rich renewable resources are available and water resources are less constrained, but far away from China’s economic heartland, thus requiring significant infrastructure investments to connect supply with demand, potentially making regional imports more attractive. 

From a geopolitical perspective, renewable hydrogen could become a key part of the Belt and Road Initiative, symbolizing China’s technological prowess while increasing export opportunities and potentially enhancing Beijing’s status as a leader in the global fight against climate change. 

Making renewable hydrogen a significant part of China’s future energy mix will require developing national and international policies and appropriate market structures aimed at spurring innovation along the value chains; scaling technologies while significantly reducing costs; and deploying enabling infrastructure. 

Today, production from coal remains the lowest-cost option, about 30% cheaper than hydrogen from natural gas. Hence reducing the carbon footprint of coal-based hydrogen will be a critical factor in its viability in a low-carbon scenario, coal-based hydrogen with Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) is likely to remain the lowest-cost clean hydrogen production route for the middle-term. 

China is piloting several new projects and policies, mainly in the mobility sector, but still has a long way to go before a hydrogen society reaches fruition. Yet if Beijing were to put its full manufacturing and policy might behind hydrogen’s value chain, it would be a true game changer with cascading effects for the entire world. 

Download Full Paper [PDF] 

References

Bloomberg (2019), “Wan Gang, China’s father of electric cars, thinks hydrogen is the future” Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/ articles/2019-06-12/china-s-father-of-electric-cars-thinks-hydrogen-isthe-future, accessed April 7, 2020. 

Bloomberg NEF (2019), “China’s Hydrogen Vehicle Dream Chased With $17 Billion of Funding” Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/ articles/2019-06-27/china-s-hydrogen-vehicle-dream-chased-by-17-billion-of-funding, accessed April 7, 2020. 

BNEF (2019), cited in Mathis, W., and J. Thornhill (2019), “Hydrogen’s Plunging Price Boosts Role as Climate Solution” BNEF https://www.bloomberg. com/news/articles/2019-08-21/cost-of-hydrogen-from-renewables-toplummet-next-decade-bnef, accessed November 21, 2019. 

BP (2019), “BP Statistical review of World Energy” 68th edition. 

Brasington, L. (2019), “Hydrogen in China” Cleantech Group https://www. cleantech.com/hydrogen-in-china/, accessed April 1, 2020. 

Brian et al. (2008), “Estimating the cost of desalination plants using a cost database.” Desalination 229 (1-3): 10-20. doi.org/10.1016/j.desal.2007.07.023. 

California Air Resources Board (2019), “2019 Annual Evaluation of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Deployment & Hydrogen Fuel Station Network Development”. 

Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (2020), https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c6700, accessed April 3, 2020. 

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (2020), http://www.caam.org.cn/ chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html, accessed April 3, 2020. 

China Daily (2019), “Great Wall Motor Bets Big on Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles” China Daily http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/26/WS5c749b98a3106c65c34eb69d.html, accessed April 3, 2020. 

China Water Risk Project (2017), “Who is running dry?” http://www.chinawaterrisk.org/the-big-picture/whos-running-dry/, accessed December 18, 2019. 

DNV GL (2018), “Hydrogen as an energy carrier. An evaluation of emerging hydrogen value chains” Group Technology & Research, position paper 2018. 

EIA (2019), “Total Primary Energy Consumption” U.S. Energy Information Administration accessed November 21, 2019. 

FAO (2016), “AQUASTAT Main Database” Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) accessed November 13, 2019. 

Franc, P. (2019), “Costs Check Growth of Fuel-Cell Infrastructure” https://www. wardsauto.com/technology/costs-check-growth-fuel-cell-infrastructure, accessed April 6, 2020. 

Gallagher, K.S., et al. (2019), “Assessing the Policy gaps for achieving China’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement” Nat Commun 10, 1256. https://doi. org/10.1038/s41467-019-09159-0. 

Global Solar Atlas (2019), “Solar resource maps” World Bank https://solargis. com/maps-and-gis-data/download/china, accessed January 07, 2020. 

Global Wind Atlas (2019), “Wind resource maps” World Bank https://globalwindatlas.info/en/area/China?print=true, accessed January 07, 2020. 

Huenteler, J., et al. (2018), “Why is China’s wind power generation not living up to its potential?” Environ. Res. Lett. 13 044001. 

Hydrogen Council (2017), “Hydrogen – Scaling up. A sustainable pathway for the global energy transition”. 

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Association (2020) “Transportation” http://www.fchea.org/ transportation, accessed March 4, 2020. 

IEA (2019). “The Future of Hydrogen. Seizing today’s opportunities. Report prepared by the IEA for the G20, Japan”. 

International Hydropower Association (2020), “Country Profiles” https://www. hydropower.org/, accessed May 11, 2020. 

Irados (Wikimedia Commons). 

Kuang et al. (2019), “Solar-driven, highly sustained splitting of seawater into hydrogen and oxygen fuels” PNAS 116(14): 6624-6629. 

Kurtz, J., et al. (2019), “Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Driving and Fueling Behavior” National Renewable Energy Laboratory https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73010.pdf, accessed March 4, 2020. 

MacDuffie, J. (2019), “China’s Electric Vehicle Market: A Storm of Competition Is Coming” Wharton School of Management https://knowledge.wharton. upenn.edu/article/chinas-ev-market/, accessed March 4, 2020. 

McCarthy, N. (2019), “The State of Global Renewable Energy Employment” Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/07/23/ the-state-of-global-renewable-energy-employment-infographic/#669213e6e63f, accessed April 6, 2020. 

National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China (2019), “Report on the Work of the Government” http://english.www.gov.cn/premier/ speeches/2019/03/16/content_281476565265580.htm, accessed November 15, 2019. 

NREL (2014), “Global CFDDA-based Onshore and Offshore Wind Potential Supply Curves by Country, Class, and Depth (quantities in GW and PWh)” National Renewable Energy Laboratory. 

Pflugmann, F., and De Blasio, N. (2020). “The Geopolitics of Renewable Hydrogen in Low-Carbon Energy Markets,” Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 12(1): 9–44. doi:10.22381/GHIR12120201. 

Pietzcker et al. (2014), “Using the sun to decarbonize the power sector: The economic potential of photovoltaics and concentrating solar power” Applied Energy 135: 704-720. 

Shell (2018), “Shell scenario SKY. Meeting the goals of the Paris agreement.” 

Standaert, M. (2019), “Why China’s Renewable Energy Transition Is Losing Momentum” Yale Environment 360. 

The International Council on Clean Transportation (2017), “Developing hydrogen fueling infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles: A status update.” 

The State Council of the People’s Republic of China (2020), “The Belt and Road Initiative” http://english.www.gov.cn/beltAndRoad/, accessed April 1, 2020. 

Toyota (2019), “Second generation Mirai” https://www.toyota-europe.com/worldof-toyota/articles-news-events/2019/new-mirai-concept, accessed April 09, 2020. 

U.S. Department of Energy (2020), “Alternative Fuels Data Center – Hydrogen Basics” https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_basics.html, accessed March 4, 2020. 

U.S. Department of Energy (2020), “Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Update” https:// www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2018/02/f49/fcto_h2_fc_update_ satyapal_transp_research_board_2018.pdf, accessed March 4, 2020. 

U.S. Department of Energy (2020), “Hydrogen Fueling Infrastructure Development” https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_infrastructure.html, accessed March 4, 2020. 

U.S. Department of Energy (2020), “Vehicle Charging” https://www.energy.gov/ eere/electricvehicles/vehicle-charging, accessed May 12, 2020. 

U.S. Geological Survey (2020), “Nitrogen - Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2020.” 

World Coal Association (2019), “Coal” https://www.worldcoal.org/coal, accessed March 4, 2020. 

World Economic Forum (2019), “Global Competitiveness Report 2019” Insights Report. 

World Nuclear Association (2020), “Nuclear Power in China” https://www. world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/ china-nuclear-power.aspx, accessed April 7, 2020.